Will there or won’t there be a Recession?

02/12/2023

The US has proven over time to be a resilient country much like a family, we’ve stumbled now and then, had arguments that have turned bloody, turned our back to each other, and even looked down on one another when we shouldn’t have, but we’ve always – always picked ourselves up and become better people for having gone through the struggles.  How have we done that?  We talk about it and then find a new and innovative way to improve.  We seem to be going through another of those trials, some of us have turned our back on others and some of us are looking down on those who won’t look at life the same way, and just like in a nuclear family it’s probably intensified because of stress.  The stress of dealing with a pandemic, followed by a sharp increase in inflation and a drop in our productivity.  Now we’re faced with the real possibility of a recession impacting not just the middle and lower economic class but everyone here in the US.  After building to one of the strongest economies the US has ever seen we find ourselves on a rapid decline.  Where will it end and how bad will it get?  Listening to any number of economists will get you any answers ranging from no recession and a quick recovery to a hard landing that will hurt a lot of people.

How did we come to this point?  Beginning in early 2020 we were faced with the Covid 19 virus that was spreading rapidly and didn’t act like any of the previous flu viruses we had encountered.  An excessive number of people were actually dying from the virus and the medical profession did not know how to slow it let alone stop its spread.  Out of an abundance of caution it was recommended the country be shut down until we could understand what this virus was doing and how it was doing it.  In a functioning, healthy society this was an appropriate response.  To counter what the government was asking its citizens to do the government appropriately 1) released funds to help people who could no longer pay for basic necessities, 2) directed the research drug companies to accelerate the development of a drug and/or therapeutic protocols to counter the effects of the Covid 19 virus, as only a country like the US could do, and 3) open an investigation into the origins of the Covid 19 virus so an appropriate treatment could be developed.  This investigation would also lay the groundwork to prevent another random strain of virus from occurring at best or learn how to detect the next deadly virus strain before it got a foothold.  This is a good and effective plan which was beginning to bear fruit towards the end of the summer/beginning of fall 2020.  Just in time to begin voting for the next President.  Anthony Fauci had been consulting on the proper response but was increasingly sidelined as we began learning more about the virus itself.  At this point in time, different arguments were surfacing, unfortunately, they began developing along party lines if you remember.

Instrumental to understanding science and innovation is an ability to openly discuss both positive results and negative results as they develop.  When it came to the 3 key points listed above all discussion was shut down when the politics began to heat up.  This became the point where understanding and treating the Covid 19 virus began to head south and today we find ourselves with an incompetent President and an administration that is unserious.  A military leadership more concerned with pronouns than kinetic threats to our country.  And dozens of people in congress who are incapable of independent thought, and do not know how to differentiate between problems that impact our real safety versus problems affecting only our emotional safety.  The narrative was halted at “…take the vaccine, wear a mask, stay indoors and keep 6 ft distance to anyone else…”, and whenever a narrative different from this slipped out it was quickly shut down.  We have always dealt with problems head-on in this country so why is this different?  Personally, I believe it stems from how Trump made Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer look like the small-minded selfish people they are.  As a result, the country remained shut down far longer than necessary and consequently, it required the government to continue the monetary handouts.  We also have a large segment of our society disincentivized to work, preferring instead handouts from the government.

In a further attempt to discredit Trump the southern border was completely opened up allowing millions of people to enter the US, and they were more than happy to make that trek.  The promise of a better economic life where you won’t need to do anything to earn it is more than incentive enough for people living under oppressive regimes.  Instead of the hard work and sacrifice our forefathers undertook to build the greatest country the world has ever known these people believe they can just come here and it’ll be handed to them.  If your primary source of news comes from social media or the classic corporate media you don’t know much about this. 

In a normal healthy society, there would be a lot of discussion about the ramifications of this massive human migration taking place, just as there would be about the covid pandemic.  Instead of opening the country up in late 2020, we kept everything shut down including healthy discussions.  Instead of looking at the risks of death to the migrants and the impact of this migration on US citizens all counter opinion and discussion was shut down and now we are dealing with the results.  The government has been pumping billions of dollars, (trillions?), into the economy without any productivity to show for it.  Consequently, our inflation rate is reaching levels we haven’t seen since Jimmy Carter was in office and the purchasing power of the dollar is dropping.  US citizens have learned they don’t have to work in order to survive or thrive, so they don’t.  Our job participation rate continues to decline which means the real unemployment rate is actually increasing, it also means productivity is declining, we have not been creating wealth only consuming it.  The Fed has taken it upon itself to single-handedly reduce the inflation rate by removing all the extra money it doled out over the last 2 1/2 years.  Their plan is to tighten the money supply instead of incentivizing companies and corporations to increase our resources, manufacturing capacity, and productivity.  They intend to keep the economic pie the same size or smaller and then just manage who gets how much of this shared pie.  The Administration is pushing our manufacturing to other countries as we convert to a petroleum-free society.  China is becoming one of the biggest investors in all things American from farmland to battery manufacturing.  China has also become our number 1 adversary, (friendly competitor if you’re Joe Biden).

This leaves us with a shrinking money supply, manufacturing being mostly outsourced to other countries, and major and independent companies beginning to lay off thousands of employees because US citizens have less to spend.  A falling job participation rate, increasing real unemployment rate, and add to this the millions of people crossing over our southern border expecting a better economic life.  What effect will that have on our economy?  What will that do to the rest of us?  All the people not working and all the people coming across the border, who also don’t work, will need to eat and have some sort of shelter.  As long as we continue on this path ask yourself, are we going to be in a recession?  Then ask yourself if it will be a soft recession or a hard recession leading to a 1930s-style depression?

If we continue unswervingly in this direction I think the answer is obvious.  However, this country, unlike any country before us, was built on the backs of people undaunted by hard work and sacrifice.  It was built by people who didn’t understand the meaning of “It’s not possible to do that”.  They found a way to accomplish the impossible.  It didn’t matter where the idea came from, whether you were black, white, yellow, red, rainbow, or something in between.  It didn’t matter if you were male or female, if it worked we did it, and when something better came along, we did that next.  Looking at our current situation things are very bleak, especially considering the inherently unserious people running all aspects of our country.  But just as the government couldn’t keep us locked down during the pandemic, they won’t be able to shut us down now.  I don’t know exactly how or who will be the instigator, but because we always find a solution we will find a solution to these current tough times.

Thanks for taking the time to read through this article.  I hope it inspires you to take a serious look at everything our press and our government tell us and question the logic of it all.

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